Why Waiting for a Recession Might Cost You More Than You Think

Are you planning to buy or sell a home and wondering if you should wait for a recession to make your move?

You’re not alone. A recent survey found that nearly 7 out of 10 people are hitting pause on their real estate plans due to economic uncertainty.

But here’s the surprising part—many aren’t waiting out of fear. They’re actually hopeful. The belief? A recession will bring lower mortgage rates and falling home prices.

Let’s break that down—because while that logic sounds good, it’s only partially true.

Recessions Often Bring Lower Rates

Historically, mortgage rates tend to decline during a recession. This is because the Federal Reserve usually lowers interest rates to stimulate the economy.

That’s why nearly 30% of homebuyers recently surveyed said a recession would make them more likely to buy—they’re banking on better affordability.

And they’re not wrong about mortgage rates. In each of the last six U.S. recessions, mortgage rates did drop.

But What About Home Prices?

This is where things get tricky. Many buyers assume that if a recession hits, home prices will also fall. But history tells a different story.

According to data from Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), home prices increased during four of the last six U.S. recessions. The only significant exception was in 2008, when the housing crash led to a steep drop in prices. That situation was fueled by risky lending and a surplus of homes—conditions that don’t apply to today’s market.

In fact, we’re still facing a housing shortage in many areas, which continues to support home values, even during economic slowdowns.

As Robert Frick, Corporate Economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, puts it:

“Hopes that an economic slowdown will depress housing prices are wishful thinking at this point.”

What This Means for You

If you're holding out for a recession to buy or sell, here’s the reality:

• Mortgage rates might improve.

• Home prices probably won’t drop.

While you’re waiting, you could be missing out on building equity, locking in your ideal home, or taking advantage of today’s still-rising inventory levels.

The Smarter Move

The truth is, the best time to make a move isn’t tied to a headline—it’s tied to your personal goals. If buying or selling makes sense for you, there’s no reason to wait for a “perfect market” that may never come.

As a local Breckenridge real estate expert and the only A.I. Certified Agent in Summit County, I bring you more than just market knowledge. I use cutting-edge technology and marketing strategies most traditional agents don’t even know exist.

Whether you're thinking of selling, buying, or just exploring your options, let’s create a smart plan that puts you ahead—no matter what the economy is doing.

Contact Me:
Phone: +1 970-390-3711
Email: kim@kimobert.com
Website: www.kimobert.com

—Kim Obert
Your AI-Certified Realtor | Breckenridge, Colorado